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OPEC+ and Russia: the tail wagging the dog
In his third blog post, Gneiss Managing Director Jon Fitzpatrick explores the dynamics at play within the OPEC+ group and the potential impacts this could have. 

 

The conflict in Ukraine has once again brought global energy prices into sharp focus.

 
Many had hoped that a significant production increase from OPEC might go some way towards stabilising things at least. However, the latest quota increase by OPEC and its fellow producers in OPEC+ came in at just 100,000 bbl/d.
While the members had all but rolled back their production restraint already, it was seen as a slap in the face to Western leaders, not least US President Joe Biden, who have been pushing for output increases to dilute oil prices still buoyant on supply concerns and the continuing geopolitical tensions worldwide.
That said, with various producer nations struggling to keep production stable, never mind on an upward trajectory, the new quota did at least pay lip service to the consumer nations’ pleas for help.
As Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and others claim that they have little more production upside, we may soon start to hear commentators beg the question: “what is the point of OPEC?”.
Perhaps this is an unfair question given that the group’s self-imposed restrictions on production brought about price stability and reinvigorated the sector during a period of struggles. However, as the top producers prioritise spare capacity for use during this turbulent and challenging period, the question might just as well be: “If OPEC can do more, why doesn’t it?”.

offshore oil & gas platform on a calm sea
These questions also highlight the relevance, or otherwise, of a few other details that have often been overlooked in relation to OPEC, namely quotas, Ukraine, ethics and supply security.
Quota compliance exceeded 220% in July, a record high, giving a gap between production and quotas of 2.8mn bbl/d. Saudi output was 10.77mn bbl/d in July while Russia’s reached 9.8mn bbl/d.
Meanwhile, quotas were increased for September to 11.03mn bbl/d, a level that for both technical and geopolitical reasons, neither country is likely to produce at for a sustained period. With their apparent irrelevance, the parity of these quotas is clearly a means of keeping the peace following Riyadh and Moscow’s brief oil production war in April 2020, which, combined with the pandemic, caused the dramatic price drop we are all trying to forget.
Elsewhere, European countries and the US would appear to see a resumption of energy relations with Iran or Venezuela as a means of further alienating Russia while adding crude to the market. Whilst the members of OPEC+ have shown themselves willing to put politics – and other issues – to one side, sticking with their partners for “the good of the market”, whilst Russia has responded by promising increased trade and the latest in weapon technology to “friendly nations”.
While many viewers may have become numb to coverage of the conflict in Ukraine, for reasons of ethics and supply security, the current situation should encourage governments of consumer nations to rethink their approach to domestic resource development, both hydrocarbon and renewable, if for no other reason than to shelter their economies from price shocks.
Economic recovery from Covid-19, war in Ukraine and a cost-of-living crisis clearly do not constitute an emergency to the members of OPEC+, but they should to consumer governments and surely a coordinated response would be better for all.

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The current situation should encourage governments of consumer nations to rethink their approach to domestic resource development, both hydrocarbon and renewable, if for no other reason than to shelter their economies from price shocks.

Jon Fitzpatrick

Managing Director, Gneiss

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